News from the New Party

US Presidential Candidates I: The Republicans

Although the presidential election does not take place until November 2008, potential candidates for president are already well into their campaigns.  The first stage is to get the nomination of their party, thus there are two parallel campaigns within the Republican and Democratic parties.  Today we give an overview of the Republican campaign.

John McCain, the 'establishment' candidate and originally anticipated to be the front-runner, has seen his campaign struggle to gather any momentum and has recently appeared to collapse.  Top campaign staff have left or been fired and the campaign has overspent, having greatly overestimated the funds that would be raised.  These issues, however, are but symptoms of a deeper underlying problem, which is that the Republican party's conservative base has lost faith in McCain despite him being seen as one who was right for a long time on Iraq (calling for more troops from an early stage) and being seen to be sound on abortion, a key issue for many social conservatives.  The really big issue that has cost him support is his backing of comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States.  The proposed bill was far from being a liberal measure, but opponents on the Republican side dubbed it an amnesty bill and McCain was identified as being soft on illegal immigration.  There were good reasons to support the bill and McCain should be commended for taking a principled stand rather than opportunistically pandering to the base, but a principled stand can be costly when it comes to votes.

Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, has emerged as the front-runner in polls.  Giuliani is remembered especially for his leadership at the time of the 9/11 attacks in New York, but as mayor he had also been successful in tackling the city's budgetary problems and appalling crime levels, effectively transforming New York in the eyes of many.  Giuliani is stong on issues like terrorism and national security and thus appeals to many conservative Republicans, but his relatively liberal stance on issues such as abortion and gay marriage - and his support for gun control - are issues where he is at odds with them.  He has tried to neutralise the abortion issue and has probably been given the benefit of the doubt because of his stance as being tough on national security.  But can that last?

Mitt Romney, though a conservative in political terms, is a former Governor of Massachusetts, a very liberal state.  He is successful in business and very wealthy in his own right, and his campaign fundraising efforts so far have outstripped his rivals on the Republican side.  He is a Mormon, which was believed by many to be a possible factor likely to hold back his campaign as voters might be wary of what that entails.  There is no clear evidence of that happening although his national support is lower than might be expected for someone who otherwise fits the profile for what many conservative Republicans want.  Romney has spent heavily in the states that will decide early on which candidate to nominate - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.  In these states he is polling well and early successes might well push his campaign forward nationally.

Fred Thompson is the 'non-candidate candidate'.  The former actor and Senator has not declared himself as being in the race yet but his eventual declaration looks like a foregone conclusion.  Thompson does not seem to have the clear and simple message that might galvanise support for his campaign yet his relatively solid conservative credentials have been latched onto by many.  His campaign (or should that be non-campaign?) took a knock recently when it was discovered that as a lobbyist some years ago he had represented a pro-choice organisation for a short time, suggesting to some that his conservative credentials might not be what everyone assumes.  However, his support continues to be strong.  The question is whether this will continue once he faces the increased scrutiny that goes with being an official candidate.

Of the others, none would appear to have much chance of securing the nomination.  A lot of noise has been made by excitable internet supporters of Ron Paul, the 'libertarian' outsider.  In truth his politics are more like those of a demagogue, offering simple solutions that tend to scapegoat others.  He is in favour of a rapid withdrawal of troops from Iraq - irrespective of the consequences for those left behind and the possibility of genocide - and placing the troops on the border with Mexico, effectively a militarisation of immigration control.  He has also hinted at support for the view that 9/11 was an 'inside job', making him the clear favourite among conspiracy theorists.  Another eternal favourite but as yet undeclared candidate is Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker who appeals to many conservatives but is considered unelectable - not least for his complicated and controversial personal life.

Our verdict?  Both Romney and Thompson, among the leading contenders, are unknown quantities on issues of terrorism and national security - and these are the key issues that we face.  Their respective brands of social conservatism do not appeal although both candidates have many positive strengths.  McCain deserves great credit for his principled stances on Iraq and immigration but his campaign is waning.  It is thus Giuliani - with his combination of great campaigning and his strength on the issues that matter - who must be the pick of the Republican candidates.  Unless, of course, any late entrants change the picture.