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Tuesday, May 08, 2007

France decides (part two)

As widely predicted, Nicolas Sarkozy won the French presidential election by a reasonably comfortable margin.  His victory speech was conciliatory to his opponents:
My thoughts therefore go to all of the French who did not vote for me. I want to tell them that beyond the political battle, beyond the differences of opinion, for me there is only one France. I want to tell them that I will be the president of all the French people, that I will speak for each one of them. I want to tell them that this evening it is not the victory of one kind of France against another...

The French people have spoken and have chosen to make a break with the ideas, the customs and the behaviour of the past. I am thus going to restore the status of work, authority, standards, respect, merit. I am going to give the place of honour back to the nation and national identity. I am going to give back to the French people pride in France...

It remains to be seen to what extent Sarkozy will succeed in implementing his broadly liberal agenda.  It is, however, evident that he will face stiff opposition from an establishment which is hopelessly wedded to statism, welfarism and central control.  While Sarkozy is often attacked as a divisive figure, the conduct of his opponent, Segolene Royal, should not be overlooked.  Oliver Kamm has highlighted disgraceful comments from Royal in an interview with RTL, which could be construed as incitement to riot:

Interviewer: Il y aura des violences si Nicolas Sarkozy est élu ?

Mme Royal: Je le pense. Je le pense. Un candidat qui ne peut pas se rendre dans les quartiers populaires sans susciter des mouvements qui le conduisent et qui le contraignent à être encadré par plusieurs centaines de policiers...je pense, en effet, qu'il y aura des tensions très fortes dans le pays parce qu'il a multiplié les provocations et les violences verbales, en particulier à l'égard des quartiers populaires.

Interviewer: Mais si Nicolas Sarkozy est élu...

Mme Royal: Je crois, en effet, que cette candidature est dangereuse ; et c'est pourquoi je demande aux électeurs de bien réfléchir pendant ces deux derniers jours de campagne.

Interviewer: Si Nicolas Sarkozy est élu, il le sera démocratiquement. Les violences si elles existaient, elles seraient illégitimes ? Nous en sommes d'accord ?

Mme Royal: Mais il faut qu'il se demande pourquoi il en suscite autant. Je crois qu'il en est aussi responsable.


[Translation:
Interviewer: Will there be violence if Nicolas Sarkozy is elected?

Mme Royal: I think so.  I think so.  A candidate who cannot set foot in working class areas without arousing movements which lead him and constrain him to be surrounded by several hundred police officers... I think indeed that there will be very strong tensions in the country because he has made many provocative statements and verbal violence, in particular with regard to the working class areas.

Interviewer: But if Nicolas Sarkozy is elected...

Mme Royal: I believe, actually that this candidature is dangerous; and that is why I ask the electors to reflect well in these final two days of the campaign.

Interviewer: If Nicolas Sarkozy is elected, it will be democratically.  Any violence if it happens, will be illegitimate?  Are we agreed on that?

Mme Royal: But one must ask oneself why he arouses it so much.  I believe he is also responsible for it.]

These are appalling comments for any politician to make: it is worth asking where this "divisiveness" is really coming from.  In the event, such disturbances as there were following the Sarkozy victory were not on the scale of the explosion of the banlieux in 2005, but rather more limited skirmishes evidently planned by left wing extremists. 

As we have previously noted, the "centrist" candidate Francois Bayrou, who was eliminated in the first round of voting, effectively backed the socialist candidate in the run-off.  There is some irony in the opposition socialist and centre candidates backing the traditional establishment line, while the incumbent minister of the interior makes a determined case for radical change: a rupture with the past.  In any event, the French have at least been provided with a meaningful choice and a proper political debate - which is more than we can expect from British politicians these days.