News from the New Party

The Liberal Democrats retreat from reality

The Liberal Democrats have enjoyed unprecedented success in the last three general elections.  The days of the entire parliamentary Liberal Party fitting into three taxis are long gone.  However, the tide is turning, and for the first time in many a year the Lib Dems are facing a classic two-party squeeze at the next election.  Peter Riddell comments:

Recent polls have put the party in the 15 to 18 per cent range, down from 23 per cent at the 2005 election. If there were a uniform swing across the country, this might leave the Lib Dems with only about 30 MPs, half their current total.

That is seen as far too pessimistic by party strategists, and they are partly correct because of the more ruthless focus on target seats. First, the party has, with the exception of 2003-05, often been at this level in national polls in mid-term and then gained during election campaigns, by between one and four points, again with 2005 an exception. Secondly, incumbent Lib Dem MPs are often hard to shift and, for a time, can resist national tides. Thirdly, tactical voting has previously helped Lib Dems in target seats. Despite disappointing overall results in the May elections, the party did well in some key Lib Dem-Tory marginals, such as Taunton and Westmoreland, and in seats they hope to win from Labour in big cities and the North, such as Hull North and Liverpool Wavertree.

Such targeting does, however, often mitigate but not halt an adverse national swing, as happened in 1970 and 1979, and many Lib Dem seats in the South are vulnerable to the Tories.

For the first time in a preelection party conference for 16 years, the Lib Dems face a two-party squeeze. They are on the defensive electorally, hoping to minimise losses rather than to advance. Nationally, that requires an effective offensive strategy to gain attention.

In response to these new circumstances the party has chosen to retreat even further from reality.  The disastrous choice of Sir Menzies Campbell as leader has hindered their prospects (especially as it is now too late in the parliament to get rid of him), but the general shift in the political landscape would have made life difficult for any leader.  With Iraq waning as a political issue the Lib Dems are being forced into yet more extreme policy positions in order to retain a distinctive image.

On the environment, the conference has adopted a radical approach to climate change, proposing to ban petrol driven cars by 2040 and to make Britain "carbon neutral" by 2050.  How the Lib Dems propose to impose carbon neutrality on, for example, China, is not specified.  Furthermore, the party has specifically rejected nuclear power as an alternative source of energy, remaining unmoved by an uncharacteristically sensible intervention from the Lib Dem spokesman on climate change in the European Parliament, Chris Davies.

On tax, an eyecatching proposal to slash 4p off the basic rate of income tax masks a raft of new environmental and other taxes, including a local income tax in place of council tax.  The claim that nine out of ten people would pay less tax under a Lib Dem government beggars belief. According to the Telegraph:

The Liberal Democrat leader made an unashamed pledge to "redress the balance" and impose new taxes on households earning more than £70,000 a year. About two million households would be affected under the plans...

The party needs to raise about £20 billion to pay for a huge cut in the basic rate of income tax from 20p to 16p.

The planned tax rises include new green levies, such as an extra £10 charge on short-haul flights and £2,000 road tax for gas-guzzling 4x4s.

Under Tony Blair, Labour avoided tax hikes for the wealthy amid fears that it would drive big earners out of the country to create jobs elsewhere.

There is nothing particularly progressive about the new Liberal Democrat proposals.  The potential impact of environmental taxes is particularly hard for voters to evaluate and the cut in income tax promises to be a potentially expensive election gimmick. Overall, the declared intention to "hammer the rich" and punish "those who have done too well under Labour" reveals these pseudo-liberals in their true socialist colours.  The Liberal Democrats are the last of the three main parties to realise that left wing economics doesn't work.  The next election promises to deliver them a deserved rebuff.